Reasoning behind Merchant Turbo being at 40 Cards

Back before I was going through Merchant Pot Turbo, explaining why it should be at 60 cards, not at 40 cards. The reason was: "The higher the count of cards, the less likely you'll get the Spell Cards drawn, which in fact help the deck greatly, by opening up options for milling."

But now, instead of Pot of Avarice being in Merchant Turbo, why not use Bait Doll? When you draw Bait Doll, if you go second, you have the option of using it right off the bat. And if you go first, normally, you set a searcher down for Magical Merchant.

So, what is the odd that you get Magical Merchant on the first draw, without being screwed by the Spell Card being drawn?

1 - (27/40)(26/39)(25/38)(24/37)(23/36)(22/35) = 92.3% probability

As for how it test plays, the first time I test played it, I got a Chain Link 12 performed and won that duel, and for the second time, it pulled a Chain Link 2, but thanks to 3 Volcanic Counters and a 6000 ATK Chaos Necromancer, I was able to pull out a win.