## Wednesday, January 26, 2011

### Synchro Fusionist (4)

Throughout testing, I finally figured out something is wrong. I needed to improve my chances on getting Junk Synchron on my first draw.
• First draw: 1-(37/40)(36/39)(35/38)(34/37)(33/36)(32/35) => roughly 39.4%
I'll just elaborate it, by asking this: "Do you think the likelihood of getting a Junk Synchron in your hand is good or bad?" Now, let's add Reinforcements of the Army and Tuning
• First draw: 1-(33/40)(32/39)(31/38)(30/37)(29/36)(28/35) => roughly 71.1%
So, the likelihood of getting the deck function relies on the fact that you need to have some sort of plan when building this deck, otherwise, you won't have any chance of success. Just thought I might elaborate on that note on why I changed the deck greatly. Yes, this game does depend on some luck, but if you prepare yourself, you'll be able to get more consistent results.

~~~

For other news, I've been trying to convince myself to make a new deck, so when I do, and it's as good as I can get it, I'll post it on here.

Also, I wasn't sure what to put up here, other than that, probability does matter, if your deck revolves around a card or 2 cards. If my math is wrong in any way, let me know so I can fix it accordingly. This is my first time doing it in a while, thinking in this aspect.

~~~

EDIT: Thanks to D-Slayer and his work as well. Odds of getting a card is important if your strategy depends on that one card, or so. So, yeah, if you have the time, take the time to read his blog.

EDIT: Thanks to the person who commented on correcting my math. Also, if anyone asks, I'm currently trying out Google Reader. If you are wondering why my icon disappeared, that's the case. I'm just a faceless icon on your blog, for now.

1. Your math is actually a bit incorrect. This is not the way you apply statistical probability in a situation where each draw affects the chance. The correct percentages for drawing just Junk Synchron is not 3/40. The probability can be obtained as follows:
[1-(37/40)(36/39)(35/38)(34/37)(33/36)(32/35)] which is roughly a 39.4% chance of drawing at least one Junk Synchron during your first turn (6 cards)

[1-(33/40)(32/39)(31/38)(30/37)(29/36)(28/35)] = roughly 71.1%

The real chance of you being able to have at least one junk synchron in your hand during your first turn is actually 71.1% which is pretty good odds. By your second turn, the probability rises to 77%, by your third turn, 82% and so on.

This is the correct way to calculate probability when drawing cards out of a deck. Hope that helped.

2. These are, of course, the probabilities of having junk synchron during your first turn and not just your single draw, which is really the matter at hand in my opinion. You're math wasn't entirely incorrect but for the purposes of what you were trying to convey, it was a bit misleading.

3. Changed the url to my blog >_>
http://kamitsures.blogspot.com/

You could delete this once you see this Ryu ^^

4. For Anonymous, thanks. I wasn't sure where to go with it, but I knew something was off when doing the math. Seeing that I haven't been use to making those type of posts and I had nothing off-hand at the time, I figured: "Meh, let's go with it, and see what happens."

At least, someone was able to correct my mistake. Thanks for the reply. I'll get to work fixing it.

At the very least, if I have to do this again, (which I will most likely have to do for my Merchant Pot Turbo deck as an explanation of why I can get Magical Merchant turn 1 or 2.

It's better to make the mistake now, than, making the mistake later, and fixing all prior posts before it.

@ Kamitsure, thanks for the reply. I'll get to updating that link.

5. Fixed opening post. Sorry for the mistakes I made. At the very least, I can learn from them, and move on.